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NHC Atlantic
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221512
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1115 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook to add discussion of a new system
over the central Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Jose, located a little over a hundred miles south-southeast
of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on Hurricane Maria, located just to
the north of Grand Turk Island.

Updated: A small area of low pressure has developed over the
central Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. The low is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms, although the circulation appears somewhat elongated.
Some additional development of this system is possible during the
next few days while it moves slowly northward through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Blake

...JOSE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 22 the center of Jose was located near 39.5, -69.4 with movement SW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017


000
WTNT32 KNHC 221440
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Advisory Number  69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

...JOSE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 69.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose
was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 69.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4
km/h). Jose is expected to meander off the coast of New England for
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area through this afternoon.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of
the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions during the next couple of days.  For more
information, please consult products from your local weather office.

Rainfall: Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of up to one inch across Cape Cod and the offshore
Islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through early Saturday.
When including rain that has already fallen, storm total
accumulations could reach 6 inches on Nantucket.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017

000
WTNT22 KNHC 221439
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  69
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  69.4W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  69.4W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N  69.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 39.4N  69.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 39.3N  69.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 38.9N  68.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.8N  68.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.5N  69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N  69.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

000
WTNT42 KNHC 221442
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number  69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

The large circulation of Jose has not changed much during the past
several hours, with a small burst of moderate-to-deep convection
rotating around the center.  Satellite classifications support
reducing the winds to 40 kt for this advisory.  Surface observations
are still showing sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the
warning areas, so advisories will be maintained on Jose. These winds
should diminish this afternoon or evening according to all of the
model guidance as Jose gradually weakens.  The intensity forecast is
a little lower than the previous one, showing a slow decay of the
winds over cold waters, which is well supported by the latest global
model guidance.

Jose has been erratically moving during the past 24 hours, with a
southwestward drift most recently noted.  The system is expected to
stay trapped in light steering flow and move little for the next
couple of days, then take a more westward turn by day 3 as the
circulation of Maria and a ridge over the northeastern United States
steer the weak cyclone. However, all models suggest it will be quite
weak by day 3 and open up into a trough on day 4.  Only small
changes were made to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
over portions of extreme southeastern New England.  These
conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 39.5N  69.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  23/0000Z 39.4N  69.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  23/1200Z 39.3N  69.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 38.9N  68.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z 38.8N  68.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z 38.5N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017

000
FONT12 KNHC 221441
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  69      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
WORCESTER MA   34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  6   1( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLIP NY       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 14:46:57 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 15:24:49 GMT

Issued at 1132 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017
...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 the center of Maria was located near 22.3, -71.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

000
WTNT35 KNHC 221436
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
warnings for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 71.0 West.  Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the north by late Saturday.  On the forecast track, Maria's core
will move away from the Turks and Caicos Islands today, and pass
northeast and east of the Bahamas through Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  A gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance
aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas and will continue through tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet
above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Puerto Rico...additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum storm
total amounts 40 inches
Eastern Dominican Republic...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated
storm total amounts 20 inches
Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6
inches
Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches
Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches
Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These swells will reach portions
of the United States southeastern coast today and Bermuda tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017

000
WTNT25 KNHC 221435
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MARIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  71.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 120SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  71.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  70.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N  71.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  45SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.5N  72.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  45SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.9N  72.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N  71.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 32.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N  71.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

000
WTNT45 KNHC 221436
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Even though Maria's eye has become cloud filled since the previous
advisory, reconnaissance data indicate that the hurricane has not
weakened.  The highest flight-level wind measured by the plane was
121 kt, accompanied by SFMR winds as high as 109 kt, so the initial
intensity will remain 110 kt.  Microwave data and reports from the
plane indicate that the eye has opened up on the southwest/west
side, which is likely an indicator of increasing southwesterly
shear.  This shear is expected to persist for at least the next 36
hours, but Maria will be moving over 28-29 degree Celsius water
during that time.  Therefore, only a very gradual reduction in wind
speed is expected for the next 2 days.  After that time, Maria will
begin to move over a cold pool left behind by Jose, where sea
surface temperatures are 26 degrees Celsius or colder.  Additional
weakening is therefore anticipated on days 3 through 5, and the NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than SHIPS, LGEM, and the
intensity consensus to account for the possible effect of the
colder waters.

Maria continues to move northwestward, or 325/7 kt, around the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered south of
Bermuda.  The hurricane should turn north-northwestward later today
and then northward in 24-36 hours when it begins to move between
the high and an elongated trough extending southwest of Jose.
Although a general northward motion is expected through the end of
the forecast period, some notable speed differences develop among
the track models from day 3 and beyond.  The ECMWF and UKMET are
the main outliers, lying on the western side of the guidance
envelope.  To account for those possible solutions, the NHC track
forecast leans a little left of the TVCN multi-model consensus
toward the end of the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flooding continues in portions of Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's
trailing rainbands.  Continue to follow advice from local
officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. Swells from Maria are beginning to reach the coast of the
southeastern United States and will last for several days.  These
swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip
currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria
forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.

3. Maria will be closer to the east coast of the United States and
Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine
what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 22.3N  71.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 23.5N  71.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 25.0N  72.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 26.5N  72.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 27.9N  72.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 30.0N  71.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 32.0N  71.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 34.0N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017

000
FONT15 KNHC 221436
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANDROS         34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  4  13(17)   5(22)   3(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SAN SALVADOR   50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34 38   3(41)   2(43)   1(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
MAYAGUANA      50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
MAYAGUANA      64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GRAND TURK     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND TURK     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND TURK     64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 14:42:53 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 15:32:56 GMT

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